Sunday 1st of November 2009
It's time to buy!
The last November-April trade returned around 6% profit over the last year, which is a very good result since the worldwide financial disaster :-)So, here we are in November, getting ready for shopping once again with 3 stocks, the same of the last year:
It should be possible to investigate for better stocks, or just increase stocks to buy in order to minimize the risk. This is your personal choice according with your cash availability. It's also possible to enter the trade whenever the stock price fall under the 26th October - 2nd November price range.
Let's see, last 21 years returns:
This simple low-risk strategy might be improved by picking underpriced stocks and buying around October 26th in order to take advantage of the turn of the month anomaly.
The May-October period could be considered as the out of the market period and can be used to invest in fixed-income securities to round up the annual return.
Here we've the 40 years equity curve 1970-2009:
... and the last 10 years :
:-) Sfl
16:55 pm CET
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Saturday 19th of September 2009
California hits 12.2% of unemployment rate
California's unemployment rate is well above the national rate of 9.7%. And it's the fourth-highest in the US, only Michigan, Nevada and Rhode Island, at 15.2%, 13.2% and 12.8%. California employers slashed a net 12,300 jobs last month. That's down from 39,000 jobs lost in July and the average of more than 70,000 jobs shed monthly during the first half of the year.
Trade, transportation and utilities posted the largest declines, along with manufacturing, financial activities, business services, leisure and other parts of the service sector.
The Anderson Forecast projects that California and the rest of the nation will emerge from the recession this quarter, but the recovery in the state will continue to lag the U.S. over the next year.
14:19 pm CEST
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Tuesday 17th of March 2009
22:05 pm CET
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Saturday 22nd of November 2008
Finally out!
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...but it didn't make such a great impression to me, definitely not what GnR is known for. |
22:09 pm CET
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Tuesday 04th of November 2008
Stocks move higher as Americans vote
Analysts said investors seemed to be trying to get a jump on the expected rally by buying on Election Day. The Federal Reserve Board in Washington last week lowered its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, to 1 percent, its second big rate cut this month. The Bank of Japan last week cut its main rate target to 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to cut rates on Thursday.
20:50 pm CET
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Monday 03rd of November 2008
Financial crack, seasonality pattern and presidential year
Is it time to buy?
Does the stock market really matter who is elected president?
Shooted at Powell Station, San Francisco, June 2008
The stock market is just one part of the economy, and under either Barack Obama or John McCain, the United States needs to recover from a downturn whose severity has not yet been determined. And either candidate will face a budget deficit of around $500 billion when he's sworn into office - a shortfall expected to climb to $1 trillion next year!
October is historically a month in which the market establishes a bottom, so the S&P500 enters November at a fairly low level compared to other months. This gives the November-April period the advantage of starting at a lower base. We are currently facing a worldwide financial crisis, prices are quite low, this could be a good opportunity to buy and hold until April 2009. In the meantime let's see who is going to be the next president of the United States.
21:51 pm CET
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Wednesday 01st of October 2008
The lost financial job
Three years ago, I had a couple of interviews at the Morgan Stanley offices for a position at Canary Wharf, London.I did not get the position at that time and only nowadays I can say Thanks god! :-)
21:50 pm CEST
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Monday 15th of September 2008
NYSE:LEH crack hits the world markets!
Here we are again!,In one of the most dramatic two days in Wall Street's history, Merrill Lynch agreed to sell itself to Bank of America for roughly $50 billion to avert a deepening financial crisis, while Lehman Brothers, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, wrost than ever!
Enron : $ 64 mld
WorldCom : $ 103,9 mld
Lehman Brothers : $ 639 mld
US's 2008 cracks
And here we have the Year To Date values:
Lehman Brothers -94.4%
Merrill Lynch -68.2%
AIG -79.2%
So, don't trade, math models aren't going to work properly these days!
23:04 pm CEST
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Tuesday 09th of September 2008
Economic News that Moves Markets
A very interesting post appeared today on the WSJ: a study about news that moves markets.New York Fed economists suggest that the only significant and persistent effetcs come from just three releases:
The Study has been done by New York Fed economists Leonardo Bartolini, Linda Godberg and Adam Sacarny using high-frequency data on asset prices in stock, bond and foreign-exchange markets over the 1998-2007 period.
Download the paper here (pdf file format).
Major implications on automatic trading systems are not easy to quantify "as is" due to difficulty of measuring the text news value, having a reliable news provider etcetera. I'll build up some model based on this approch as soon as I get some f****** free time. If anyone want help (for fun or profit) an historical excel with date;"hh:mm:ss";text news is needed, 3 or 4 years at least. In the meantime enjoy the paper!
22:22 pm CEST
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Friday 12th of October 2007
Struts2.0 blank project
Netbeans doesn't support the Struts2.0 framework yet. I have prepared a blank project for those of you who want to start a project from scratch.Here is the strut2blank project ready to be used: Download struts2blank poject (3Mb).
Unrar the project into your netbeansProjects directory, then open the project and select struts2blank directory. After you have done these steps, add the follow libraries:
Then, build&clean, run.
By default, it tries to use the GlassFish application server, change to Tomcat if you prefer.
15:52 pm CEST
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